Electric vehicles or CNG — which is actually the better fuel for India?

TERI in its recently published report "Study on Comparative Assessment of Vehicular Fuels in India's Energy Transition: A Multi-dimensional Approach" dismantles the simplistic "one-fuel-fits-all" narrative. Evaluating five propulsion pathways across six vehicle categories through 2050, the study demonstrates that no single fuel consistently scores highest across all dimensions, recommending a segmented, technology-neutral transition.

In India's automotive decarbonization, EVs are often framed as the ultimate clean mobility solution. But a continent-sized economy with diverse geography, extreme climate variation, grid constraints, and distinct fleet duty cycles cannot be decarbonized through a single technology mandate.

The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) examined this challenge comprehensively. In its landmark study, TERI evaluated 5 fuels—Petrol, Diesel, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Electricity (EV), and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)—across 6 vehicle categories, from two-wheelers and three-wheelers up to passenger cars, taxis, delivery vans, and heavy commercial trucks. The analysis projected technology suitability across four time horizons: Current, 2030, 2040, and 2050, capturing regional variations across ten representative cities including Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Surat, and Guwahati.

Scope of the assessment: Five propulsion fuels evaluated across six distinct vehicle segments through 2050. Source: TERI (2026).

Key Practical Realities Highlighted

The study moves beyond tailpipe emissions to examine the full operational and system-level footprint of alternative fuels. Several key practical realities emerge from the empirical data:

Cradle-to-grave lifecycle emissions: Upstream coal power generation impacts electric vehicle lifecycle scores. Source: TERI (2026).

On a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) basis, CNG currently shows the lowest overall environmental burden across most vehicle categories. Because India's electricity grid remains roughly 70% coal-dependent, electric vehicles carry an upstream carbon penalty today when considering cradle-to-grave lifecycle emissions—from power generation and battery manufacturing to vehicle operation and end-of-life disposal. Furthermore, the report notes that blending 20% Compressed Biogas (CBG) under the GOBARdhan initiative could make CNG carbon neutral on a lifecycle basis.

Payload penalty in heavy freight: Massive battery packs reduce net revenue payload capacity in 55-tonne commercial trucks. Source: TERI (2026).

In heavy commercial transport, vehicle tare weight and payload limits are decisive. In a 55-tonne commercial freight truck, a battery electric powertrain has an unladen tare weight of approximately 8.8 tonnes compared to around 7.1 tonnes for an LNG truck. This imposes a direct 1.7-tonne penalty on allowable revenue-generating cargo capacity on every single haul.

Due to longer charging times, the number of charging points is a poor measure of real service capacity. A CNG or diesel dispenser refuels a vehicle in 3 to 4 minutes, whereas a DC fast charger occupies a vehicle charging bay for 45 to 60 minutes. Consequently, a conventional dispenser delivers 10x to 15x higher vehicle throughput per hour, requiring significantly less urban real estate and avoiding localized power distribution grid bottlenecks.

Vehicle utilization dictates electric vehicle success. High-mileage commercial fleets—such as app-based taxis, delivery vans, and three-wheeler autos running 150 to 250 km per day—rapidly recover higher initial EV purchase costs through daily per-kilometer fuel savings. Conversely, low-mileage private car owners driving 25 to 40 km per day face prolonged payback horizons, making upfront showroom price and battery replacement uncertainty the primary adoption hurdles.

The 5-Pillar Scorecard & TOPSIS

To decide the future pathway objectively, TERI created a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model where fuels were ranked using an expert-driven model across five core dimensions:

The criteria weights were established through a 50:50 blend of national expert consensus using the Delphi method and structured stakeholder surveys across four major cities: Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Guwahati.

Fuels were scored using the TOPSIS method (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution). In simple English: it compares every fuel to a hypothetical "dream fuel" (perfect in every way: zero cost, zero emissions, instant refueling, and zero imports) and an "ideal worst" nightmare fuel. Each option receives a relative closeness score between 0 and 1 based on how close it comes to the dream benchmark and how far it stays from the nightmare benchmark.

Fleet-Wise Transition Pathways

Based on this multi-criteria evaluation, TERI published fleet-specific transition pathways projecting through 2050:

• Two-Wheelers: Decisive EV dominance. Low unladen weight, small 2 to 4 kWh battery packs, convenient overnight home charging from standard 15A sockets, and low running costs make electric two-wheelers the dominant transition pathway by 2040.
• Three-Wheelers: EV and CNG coexistence. Electric autos lead urban passenger routes due to attractive running economics of ₹0.40 to ₹0.60 per km, while CNG remains a strong, low-cost complementary option for suburban transit and cargo loaders requiring continuous uptime.
• Personal Cars: CNG acts as the immediate clean bridge today, supported by over 8,600 operational stations nationwide and affordable factory-fitted models. Electric cars expand gradually as inter-city highway fast-charging corridors densify, with CNG retaining strong relevance even in 2050.
• Taxis and Commercial Cars: EV is preferred over the long term for operating running economy, with high daily mileage amortizing vehicle capital costs within 2.5 to 3.5 years. CNG remains a vital intermediate transition pillar.
• Light Commercial Vehicles: Segmented dual-track. Electric delivery vans lead urban last-mile logistics with depot charging, whereas CNG dominates regional and suburban freight routes between industrial clusters.
• Heavy Trucks: LNG emerges as the frontrunner for long-haul highway freight (1,000 to 1,200 km range on a 5-minute fill), with CNG leading regional transit. Electric trucks remain selective due to massive battery tare weights and high-voltage grid charging constraints.

The complete fleet transition matrix published in the study summarizes these findings:

4 Critical Reality Checks

However, I have some apprehensions regarding the report's underlying assumptions:

1. The Biogas Premise: The report's conclusion that CNG achieves the lowest lifecycle emissions relies heavily on blending 20% Compressed Biogas (CBG) under the GOBARdhan initiative. Delivering a 20% CBG blend across projected national CNG demand requires approximately 3.0 million metric tonnes per year (11 MMSCMD) by 2030, and 7.5 million metric tonnes per year (27 MMSCMD) by 2040. Today, India produces only around 0.17 million metric tonnes per year across approximately 217 operational plants. The official GOBARdhan target of more than 5 MMSCMD covers less than half of the 2030 requirement and under 20% of 2040 need. If bio-gas scaling lags, CNG's lifecycle emissions edge over electric vehicles narrows significantly.

2. Unequal Baselines: While CNG benefits from forward-looking biogas blending assumptions, it is unclear if EV scores fully account for future technological leaps in battery gravimetric energy density or rising renewable grid penetration. In 55-tonne commercial trucks, the 1.7-tonne battery tare weight penalty is carried unchanged all the way to 2050, without factoring in lighter cell chemistries or solid-state advancements over the next 25 years. Furthermore, EVs are evaluated against today's coal-heavy grid baseline, whereas India's non-fossil power capacity is expanding rapidly toward national targets.

3. Methane Slip: India imports roughly 50% of its natural gas consumption as LNG. It is unclear whether the report's Life Cycle Assessment fully covers energy-intensive upstream liquefaction, cryogenic ocean transport, regasification, and fugitive methane slip across pipeline networks. Because methane possesses an 80x higher 20-year Global Warming Potential than carbon dioxide, uncounted fugitive emissions across the gas value chain could alter the relative lifecycle rankings.

4. Economic Illusion: Though the Economic pillar is given the highest weight at 31%, Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) accounts for only 39% to 44% within that bucket. Actual consumer affordability and direct vehicle running costs represent only about 12% to 14% of the composite model score. The remaining roughly 18% consists of macro-fiscal parameters—national crude oil import bills, exchequer excise and VAT revenues, and subsidies—reflecting sovereign government finances rather than consumer pocketbooks.

The Verdict: A Multi-Fuel Future

Having highlighted the above factors, I fully agree with the report's finding: forcing a single propulsion technology across all automotive sectors leads to economic misallocation. In a large and economically diverse country like India, a multi-fuel approach is vital. Considering all technologies—including electric vehicles that depend on imported battery minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel—rely on some level of imports, a balanced mix ensures we remain independent of any single nation's supply chain.

A pragmatic transition strategy must align clean fuel choices with vehicle duty cycles: accelerating electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers where economics and grid access are ideal, leveraging CNG as an affordable unsubsidized transit bridge for cars and regional logistics, and developing LNG for long-haul heavy commercial freight.